Egypt and the Rule of Law

NPR ran a story on February 16 arguing -- there really is no other word for it, since they did no serious reporting -- that the peaceful ouster of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt represented a serious setback for al Qaeda. This conclusion came from the fact that al Qaeda has issued no statement about the events of last week and from the reasoning that the peaceful overthrow of the Egyptian government shows al Qaeda's tactics to be both unnecessary and ineffective, since al Qaeda has been working to get rid of Mubarak for twenty years.

It certainly is true that these events put al Qaeda in a rhetorical bind: they can't praise the peaceful protestors for being successful since it does not appear that any of al Qaeda's goals beyond overthrow were accomplished, but they can't condemn anything about the actions either. President Obama succeeded in keeping the United States at a distance, so no one could be tainted by the smell of American interference or preference. Any statement one way or the other, especially in the context of other unrest in Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon and Jordan, might demoralize al Qaeda members who are looking for the nexus of evil that has always been the rallying point for al Qaeda. If leadership comes out against successful revolts they look silly and self-centered, but if they support them they risk hemorrhaging recruits to another method or group.

But logic does not always prevail in history. Any disorder in Egypt could provide a crack through which al Qaeda could enter. A better-organized al Qaeda in Egypt, where anger and education come together to a greater degree than any other place in the Middle East would be an extraordinarily dangerous thing. Remember that the intellectual foundation of the September 11 attackers' motivation came from Egyptian scholars and preachers. Hasan al Bana and Sayyid Qutb came from Egypt.

That's not to say that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamist leadership of Egypt are al Qaeda. They are not. If the moderate Islamist movement has any geographic base, it is in Cairo, where the press (see especially al Ahram) and the resistance have for a long time been as reasoned as any in similar circumstances. It is to say that the work of those seeking the rule of law in Egypt have a lot of work to do. President Obama must be on the list of such people. Elections must occur, and order must be maintained while they are established. No one but Egyptians can succeed in these things, but other nations can help to keep outside actors from messing things up.