The Legality of Crimea's Annexation

Having read and heard more on the legality of the Crimean secession from Ukraine, I remain unconvinced that the whole thing is bogus.

The argument against the legality Crimea's departure and its ensuing annexation by Russia is that the process was coerced. Although there was a referendum, no one thinks it was clean. For one thing, the margin of victory was far too wide. You can't get 99% of any group to vote for any thing; I would expect the margin for voter error -- people accidentally voting against it -- would be higher than 1%. For another, the voting was closely "supervised" by Russian soldiers, present despite denials of their existence by Putin.*

Putin's reflexive paranoid ranting reinforces the impression of illegitimacy. His railing against Western interference in Ukraine and his calling protesters "fascists" and "extremists" indicates his wacko world view and his inclination to behave erratically.

That Crimean Tatars report increasing persecution under the newly Russianized government makes matters worse.

At Dartmouth College this weekend I heard lecturer Jason Sorens argue that this coercion made the referendum clearly illegal. Only when both entities in the matter -- the separatists and the recognized government -- agree to the secession is it truly legitimate, he said. Such concessions are not unheard of, he pointed out, and include Congressional authorization for Puerto Rico to leave the United States at any time it chooses.

Viktor Yanukovich: Out for good reason

This line of reasoning, however, has its weaknesses. The new Ukrainian interim government derives its own legitimacy form a popular mandate not achieved through normal elections. I have no doubt that the people of western Ukraine were right to expel the corrupt, brutal puppet Yanukovich. But it's not obvious to me that Crimeans are bound by that choice, and if their move was irregular it should not surprise us. The form of the referendum was wrong, and in situations like this form matters. No one argues, however, that the majority of Crimeans would have voted against secession if a clean vote had been held.

* The fact that the soldiers were wearing uniforms without insignia is in fact a violation of international law, which requires legal combatants to display name, rank and national identifiers.